Western Michigan Winter Forecast Thoughts

Bill Steffen, Senior Meteorologist

My official winter forecast usually comes out around the end of October, but I thought I’d throw out a few thoughts now.  First, you can see the latest Winter Forecast from the Climate Prediction Center.  It doesn’t look too bad to me. More on that later.   

September 1-20 for Grand Rapids has been 1.1 degrees cooler than average.  We’ll be on the cool side from Thursday to Sunday and we’ll likely wind up the month a little below average, after four consecutive months of above average temperatures.  So far this month has been dry (0.61″ of rain for G.R. and only 3 of 20 days with measurable rain).   I think October will start a little warmer than average and we’ll get some good fall days in October with peak color around Oct. 10-17 in our area. 

Then, I think at some point we turn cold and get significant snow in November (like 2005 and 2008). 

We’re heading back to a La Nina for this winter (though not as strong as last winter).   Here’s global sea surface temperatures.   You can see the (blue) colder than average water along the Equatorial Pacific from South America westward.  There’s colder than average water around much of Alaska and around northwest Europe.  You can also see that the tropical storms have knocked down the water temperatures (through mixing cold water from below) north of Puerto Rico.   The cold water off the west coast of Mexico has reduced hurricane formation there.   

Here’s La Nina effects.What you see on that graphic is what we’ve had…heat and drought in the South, wet weather along the NW coast…active hurricane season in the Atlantic (not many hits on the U.S.) and inactive in the eastern Pacific…wet in Australia, drought in the Horn of Africa. Here’s the CFS forecast, clearly showing the La Nina.  Here’s the Frontier Research Center…put in Dec.-Feb. and you’ll see it cold in the NW, warm in the SE (I think that maybe a bit overdone) and cool in Western Europe and China.  

So, we begin the winter forecast by looking to last winter, because many of the same factors will still be in place, We had near normal snowfall last year.   The average temperature (I don’t know if they have/will adjust Jan./Feb. to the new 1981-2010 normals) was slightly cooler than average.  You’d have to say near to slightly below normal temperatures for this coming winter and I’m leaning toward above average snowfall, though I haven’t decided exactly by how much. 

I do buy the storm track  and above normal precipitation up through the Ohio Valley, the likelihood of continued below normal precipitation in Texas and a good portion of the southern U.S. and probably another above average spring for tornadoes (KY-TN).  And again, snow comes earlier than it did the past couple winters.  We’ll have the shovels out in November.   More on this in the coming weeks.