One day after Snow Plow News provided the analysis you see in red below, the AccuWeather team came out with yet another forecast.  Those in the snow and ice business will have a hard time deciphering what all of these forecasts mean exactly.  Snow Plow News is the only source to track these forecasts so you can also learn.

December 2, 2012 Notice:

AccuWeather: Northeast Not Off the Hook with Winter Forecast Update

By Meghan Evans, Meteorologist

Dec 2, 2011; 2:27 PM ET

A frequent storm track across the interior Northeast means more snow for the interior Northeast and northern New England and more changeover events for the big I-95 cities.

We will showcase another new map just below....

December 1, 2012 Notice:

The 2011-12 Winter Forecast from AccuWeather has now changed again.

We have been reading through numerous forecasts from numerous forecasters since July of 2011 to determine the factors that lead to a long range winter forecast and the factors that lead to a change in these long-range forecasts. All of these major forecasts and forecast changes are offered to you in this blog.

The AccuWeather Winter Forecast that was last released in early October has now been revised.  We looked back to see what has occurred to cause a change in this forecast and we found inconclusive data. We looked at two points that were listed as main factors in the forecast, La Niña and NAO and this is what we found:

1) A weak to moderate La Niña is still in place for this winter. This factor was stated as existing in the earlier forecasts and has not changed as a contributing factor for this forecast. If the presence of a La Niña has been constant, we cannot figure how this would contribute to the change in the 2011-12 Winter Forecast as of December, 1, 2011. 

2) A number of sources have focused on the NAO, or North Atlantic Oscillation, possibly turning negative for a time. This means a large area of high pressure could set up over Greenland, forcing cold air blasts to reach the eastern U.S. If this factor does weigh in, then the forecast you see for the east coast in the new map dated December 1, 2011 will be contradicted.

3) As expected, every one of these prognosticators is only going to be as accurate as their understanding of the data and deciphering of the principles to make a "best guess."  There are so many factors that can change the weather within a two-week window that they all must and do leave themselves plenty of "wiggle room" in their forecasts.  It is how they deal with the "wiggle room" that makes a difference in the believability and accountability of their forecasts.

Our final conclusion: The Winter Forecast from the NOAA dated October 18, 2011 in this blog is the most reasonable forecast due to their statements about the "wildcard" nature of the Arctic Oscillation.

Here are the forecasts for you to review:

NEW, NEW AccuWeather Forecast Highlights

Date: Friday, December 2, 2011

Information from the new, new forecast:

-Temperatures were brought up a bit for the entire region with less frequent, harsh cold spells expected, especially for early December.

-More changeover or mix events expected for I-95 corridor from mid-Atlantic through New England

A frequent storm track across the interior Northeast means more snow for the interior Northeast and northern New England and more changeover events for the big I-95 cities. The AccuWeather.com 2011-2012 Winter Forecast update is not too different from the initial winter forecast release.

However, Paul Pastelok, expert long-range meteorologist and leader of the AccuWeather.com Long-Range Forecasting Team, expects some changes following a mild November for most.

While temperatures were bumped up in the Northeast with near-normal snowfall expected in the I-95 cities, there will still be some cold snaps. According to Pastelok, the coldest part of the winter should be late December and January.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/northeast-not-off-the-ho...

NEW AccuWeather Forecast Highlights

Date: Thursday, December 1, 2011

The new forecast released by AccuWeather Meteorologist Meghan Evans states that they still expect a stormy winter for the U.S. with the worst in terms of snow and cold targeting the Midwest and interior Northwest.

Big Midwestern cities, such as Chicago and Minneapolis, will lie in the heart of this zone.

While the worst of winter will be focused over the Midwest and Northwest, it does not mean other parts of the country are off the hook.

Source:  http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweathercom-20112012-...

More December 1, 2011 New forecast explanations from another forecaster:

To increase our understanding of the changes in the forecast, AccuWeather Meteorologist Paul Long posted his new maps of the overall winter forecasts and also stated in his blog:

Changes - "First of all, I want to stress that I did not feel that the Northeast would be cold this winter season. The numbers that I gave my energy clients were never below normal for New England and mid-Atlantic."

"We did feel there will be several storms. However, this year, the storms may not be just snow but changeover systems much of New England down through the mid-Atlantic. Less snow is expected compared to last year, but interior areas of the Northeast may wind up just above normal."

"December looks milder across than earlier predictions for the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast. Temperatures were taken up. However, this area still expected to be stormy with above-normal snowfall."

The Southeast and southern Plains looks cooler through mid December, especially at night.

The West still may not lock in throughout the year with shifting precipitation areas and cold at times, but it does look like precipitation and snowfall will run above normal, especially through northern California and Oregon on east."

Source: http://proa.accuweather.com/adcbin/professional/mt-news-blogs.asp?b...