Not as predicted...

"People in Chicago are going to want to move after this winter," stated AccuWeather.com Long-Range Meteorologist Josh Nagelberg. 

Snow Plow News has contacted forecasters to get answers as to why we haven't seen this massive winter snow but we have been met with silence.

We do know that Native Americans recently came together to perform a snow dance as their region is so desperate for snow.

Last checked, Alaska was getting record snow and not Chicago but, heck, forecasters can be off by a little, right?

Check out this review of the forecasts as they were foretold so few months ago:

U.S. Snow Forecast Comparisons for the Winter of 2011-2012

First winter forecast from August 9, 2011 compared to latest forecast dated December 2, 2011:

Long range winter weather forecasts change at a few distinct times before the bulk of the winter starts.  There are only a few organizations that originate these forecasts:

1) NOAA

2) AccuWeather

3) The Farmer's Almanac

The first long range forecasts come out in August, the second series of forecasts come in mid to late October and the final communications will come in early December.

Each organization uses their own research tools and scientists to interpret the data which then lead to their particular forecasts. 

Oddly enough, it seems that these forecasts are quite close to each other.

One forecaster seems to rail against the establishment and his science relies on the study of the sun and how the sun affects our weather.  Piers Corbyn can be seen here with his latest forecast in November, 2011:LINK

In order from the most recent to the earliest, we present the 2011-12 winter forecasts:

Date: Friday, December 2, 2011

This was the second straight day that a winter forecast was released by AccuWeather.  This forecast seems to re-forecast what we had seen the day before for some reason.  You can easily see the differences in the maps date Dec. 2 and Dec. 1.

Click on the map to see more on each forecast.

Date: Thursday, December 1, 2011 AccuWeather

The new forecast released by AccuWeather states that they still expect a stormy winter for the U.S. with the worst in terms of snow and cold targeting the Midwest and interior Northwest. So, not much changed from the October forecasts.

For more insight into why  AccuWeather might have  changed the forecast two days in a row, check our other forum by clicking HERE.

Date: Thursday, December 1, 2011 AccuWeather - Paul Long

Yet another forecast from AccuWeather on December 1, 2011.This forecast comes from AccuWeather Meteorologist Paul Long's blog which appears on the paid Professional site which many of you may not have access to. 

Changes - "First of all, I want to stress that I did not feel that the Northeast would be cold this winter season. The numbers that I gave my energy clients were never below normal for New England and mid-Atlantic."  For more information on Paul Long's forecast, click on either of the maps from Paul Long.

 

Date: October 20, 2011 NOAA Winter Forecast

NOAA Maps from October 20, 2011 - Precipitation & Temperature

According to Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “There is a wild card, though. The erratic Arctic Oscillation can generate strong shifts in the climate patterns that could overwhelm or amplify La Niña’s typical impacts.” This could bring about another "Snowmageddon."

Date: October 20, 2011 AccuWeather Forecast

 

This is when this statement was released as well: "People in Chicago are going to want to move after this winter," stated AccuWeather.com Long-Range Meteorologist Josh Nagelberg.

Date: August 29, 2011 Farmer's Almanac Froecast

So what’s in store for the coming winter?

 For the winter of 2011–12, the Farmers’ Almanac is forecasting “clime and punishment,” a season of unusually cold and stormy weather. For some parts of the country, that means a frigid climate; while for others, it will mean lots of rain and snow.

Date: August 9, 2011 AccuWeather Henry Margusity

The basis of the forecast is on the prediction that a weak La Nina will be forming this fall and continuing through the winter. Last year, we had a strong La Nina with blocking over Greenland that lead to a very snowy winter across the Midwest and Northeast. While the pattern will be similar to last year, there will be changes in the pattern that will lead to the heavy snow areas shown on the map.

I am not convinced that blocking will be prevalent across Greenland this winter, however, with the trough axis predicted to be in the Midwest, that will lead to storms developing along the East coast and racing northeast.

The cold will be back in the Appalachians, and that will lead to heavy snow in that area. The major cities will probably be fighting many mix precip storms with the snow lovers along the I-95 corridor pulling their hair over heavy snow versus ice and rain.

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So, be your own judge on what to take away from all of these forecasts.  The best we can figure is that when it comes to long term forecasts, there can be some changes that occur within in 2 weeks that can cause every best guess to be thrown out the window. Simply put: Be Prepared for winter!

 SPN's Top 7 basic jobs to do before the snow flies:

  1) Mark all border areas for the plows with driveway markers

  2) Tune up your plows - fix electrical connections, flush & fill Hydraulics, weld broken joints

  3) Tune up your snow blowers - Change oil, spark plug, gas up

  4) Buy some new shovels - good deals early on

  5) Get some new winter wear - Boots, hat, gloves

  6) Check your truck battery - don't let it die in a storm

  7) Get a new coffee mug for the long plowing nights